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Research Publication
Muhammad Nadeem Sarwar, Hamid Hussain, Muhammad Bilal Maqbool
IBA Ph.D scholars co-author paper on effects of oil price on food and non-food prices

Muhammad Nadeem Sarwar (PhD Scholar Economics, IBA Karachi), Hamid Hussain (PhD Scholar Economics, IBA Karachi) and Muhammad Bilal Maqbool (PhD Scholar Economics, IBA Karachi) have co-authored a paper "Pass through effects of oil price on food and non-food prices in Pakistan: A nonlinear ARDL approach" which has been accepted by an international journal, Resource Policy. This journal is indexed in WoS, Scopus and HJRS-HEC (in W category). This paper is available online for readers at: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1bq0n14YFwzaDL

Abstract:

Petroleum products constitute major share of Pakistan's imports. A change in crude oil prices affects energy prices and thus manufacturing and transportation cost. All these factors result in influencing the prices of goods and services which ultimately affect the welfare level of masses. Keeping in view, the market structure at international and local level, present study examines the pass-through effect of crude oil prices on food and non-food prices in Pakistan using nonlinear and asymmetric autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model and causality tests for 1990Q3 to 2019Q4 period. Results show that oil prices effect both food and non-food inflation, but effect is more pronounced in non-food inflation. It is also found that the impact is asymmetric, that is, effect is positive and significant only when oil price increase. Results of this study confirm the role of market power in commodity prices in Pakistan and call for effective regulatory policies.